Model Puts Remain to Win at 86% in EU Referendum
The latest research by the Select team suggests that if the EU referendum were to be held today, the UK would be six times more likely to remain in the EU than to leave. “Though the polls look fairly close, the uncertainty around the Remain camp’s lead is small enough that a Leave win would be pretty unlikely if the referendum were held today”, says Executive Director, Steve Brooks.
Select’s predictions use a sophisticated model based upon the poll results published in the run up to the referendum. The model takes account of various polling biases and the likely intentions of those who express no preference when asked how they intend to vote. “Many people see results suggesting that one camp has 55% of the vote but don’t realise that this can translate into a probability of winning that is much greater”, says Steve. “We need a model to translate these polls into probabilities and, for some on both sides, these numbers may come as a bit of a shock”.
With four weeks still to go until the actual referendum on June 23rd the model indicates that the probability of a Remain win drops to 68%. “This is because there’s so much that could happen over the next four weeks and this creates additional uncertainty in the model”, says Steve. The model also suggests that these probabilities are sensitive to the voting intentions of those who have yet to express a preference in the polls. “The Leave camp face an uphill battle but, with 4 weeks to go, they’re still in with a chance to win”.
We’ll be regularly updating our predictions over the next four weeks as new polls are published, so check out our referendum update page for the latest predictions. To learn about the model and the predictions in more detail read our blog.